How many people who get a dui end up getting a 2nd?

Also, how many of those who get a 2nd DUI then end up getting a 3rd? I teach a DUI class (I am newly hired) and a fellow coworker had been spouting out about 76% of all 1st offenders become 2nd offenders and then out of those 2nd offenders, the percentage that become 3rd offenders is more than 85%. I have been looking for this information on the net for days now and can’t find it. I don’t want to offend my coworker by questioning his numbers,(and a veiled attempt by asking what site he found it at won’t work) but I also don’t want to repeat this number to my students when it might not be right. I live in California.

This study:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2853607/

found an annual recidivism rate of 24.3 per 1000 among first offenders (and they included as "first offenders" those who refused an alcohol test even if not convicted). That is 2.43%. I can find no support for the 76% claim, and suspect he is reading some statistic erroneously, which is not uncommon.

Smells like also errs. If 3-5% of drivers account for 80% of DUI offenses, then it simply cannot be true that 4 out of 5 (or 76%) of first offenders offend again. It would mean that 80% of arrests for second offenses involve only 3-5% of the driving population, which seems to fit more closely with the 2.43% recidivism rate in the study above. However, that would fit with a high recidivism rate among SECOND offenders (i.e., the likelihood that there will be a third).

2 Responses to “How many people who get a dui end up getting a 2nd?”

  • Smells like New Screen Names says:

    "Estimates suggest the majority of all DWI episodes are committed by a small group of chronic offenders Further analysis of these numbers reveals about 3-5 percent of drivers account for about 80 percent of the drunken driving episodes, and the remaining 20 percent of DWI episodes are accounted for by the remaining 185 million drivers in the United States. Identifying this small cadre of persistent drunken drivers is essential to develop effective intervention strategies.

    So four out of five DUI offenders will offend again or have offend in the past. Which isn’t quite what your colleague is claiming.

    I used the key words "dui recidivism rates" and found many websites which discuss the subject.
    References :
    http://www.uscourts.gov/uscourts/FederalCourts/PPS/Fedprob/2011-12/risk.html

  • John S says:

    This study:
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2853607/
    found an annual recidivism rate of 24.3 per 1000 among first offenders (and they included as "first offenders" those who refused an alcohol test even if not convicted). That is 2.43%. I can find no support for the 76% claim, and suspect he is reading some statistic erroneously, which is not uncommon.

    Smells like also errs. If 3-5% of drivers account for 80% of DUI offenses, then it simply cannot be true that 4 out of 5 (or 76%) of first offenders offend again. It would mean that 80% of arrests for second offenses involve only 3-5% of the driving population, which seems to fit more closely with the 2.43% recidivism rate in the study above. However, that would fit with a high recidivism rate among SECOND offenders (i.e., the likelihood that there will be a third).
    References :

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